OpenAI status: All Systems Operational·Last global reset: Oct 28, 06:29 UTC·70 verified resets
How the odds work
How we forecast a Codex reset
The percentage is the chance of a global Codex usage reset in the next 24 or 48 hours. Waiting longer does not make it more likely.
What the number means
What Tibo said
Odds
Why
He named a time for a global reset
93%
A future reset was stated with a clock.
He promised a reset, no clock
83%
A future reset was stated without a time.
No live promise
history
Recent gaps between verified resets, not a due date.
Right now: 0% / 10%
What this is not
Not your personal 5-hour or weekly clock — that is in /status.
Not an OpenAI schedule or leak.
A reset is counted only when a public Tibo post says so.
Codex reset questions
When no live Tibo promise is active, it is the probability of at least one verified global reset in the next 24 hours, estimated from up to eight completed reset intervals and rounded to five points.
Models that treated a reset as becoming “due” scored worse in backtests. The current model is memoryless: the daily rate comes from recent gaps, and time already waited does not add points.
Only when Tibo explicitly promises a future global reset. A date, range or clock is 93%; without a clock, 83%. Hints and third-party text cannot create an alert.
